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As they arrive at Gillette Stadium for their NFL Week 13 TNF encounter with the New England Patriots, things seem to be going in the right direction for the Buffalo Bills.
They have won back-to-back since a two-game losing streak briefly knocked the Bills from the top spot in the AFC East. Curiously, both of those wins came at Ford Field in Detroit. The Bills beat the Cleveland Browns there as a home team after their game was rescheduled on November 20 after a heavy snow storm in Buffalo. The Bills then returned to Detroit on Thanksgiving to beat the Lions 28-25.
At the same time, things don’t seem quite back to normal for the Bills. They’re 3-2 straight but only 1-4 against the spread over the last five games. Recent struggles have seen Buffalo slip from Super Bowl favorite to second betting option to win the NFL title at odds of +450.
Maybe a trip to New England is just what the doctor ordered to fix all that’s ailing the Bills. Buffalo has left town victorious on four of their last five visits to face the Patriots. The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games at Gillette Stadium.
Buffalo is seeded as the 4-point straight favorite in this game, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 1st.
Must win for Patriots?
It might seem far-fetched to think of this as a do-or-die game for the Patriots. However, a loss with Drop New England at 6-6 and three games behind the Bills in the AFC East. The Patriots are already the +2800 fourth pick to win the AFC East title, so another intra-division loss would surely end all division title hopes.
After tying the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets to three points each in back-to-back wins, New England was rewarded with 33 points by the Minnesota Vikings in a Thanksgiving road loss. That equated to a season-high for points allowed by the Pats.
The Patriots have held a 2-3 lead in games against teams that currently hold an NFL playoff position. Both wins came at the expense of the New York Jets. Thursdays are generally friendly to New England. The Patriots have won nine of their last 11 Thursday games. New England is also 7-3 ATS in the club’s last 10 home games.
Teams affected by 20-20 Vision
When analyzing the keys to winning this game, perhaps it all starts with the number 20. The Patriots cannot guarantee victory if they score 20 points. But they can be sure that if they drop 20 points, they will be beaten.
The Patriots are 0-5 SU this season if they concede 20+ points. The offensive has gone under 20 points in four games. They are 4-3 SU if they score 20+ points in a game this season.
The Bills have dropped at least 20 points in each of their last four games and in seven games this season. Buffalo is 4-3 SU in these games.
New England have scored 20 points in just two of their last seven games against Buffalo. The Patriots have lost each of the last four games against the Bills in which Buffalo has scored at least 20 points.
At least one team in this rivalry has been kept below 20 points in nine of the last 11 matches.
Bills vs Patriots betting trends
Oddly enough, the over in the last six games of Bills vs. The total for this game opened at 45.5 points. It has since been reduced to 43.5 points.
Buffalo was a 5.5-point favorite in the opening line, so that’s being cut in New England’s favor as well. However, the bettors get their actions written down in the bills.
When it comes to public betting trends at DraftKings Sportsbook, Bills are the number one choice. Buffalo receives 60% of the handle and 75% of the bets related to public spread splits. Moneyline splits gravitate even more towards the bills. There are 82% of the handles and 83% of the bets backing Buffalo.
The public split on the grand total is over with the . It receives 55% of the handle and 70% of the bets. The Bills have gone down in their last six road games, as well as their last seven games as a street favorite.
Another unique trend to watch is that New England doesn’t want Jones to keep up. When Patriots quarterback Mac Jones goes less than 200 yards, New England is 6-2. If he goes for 200 yards, the pats are 8-10. Last week Jones threw for a career-high 382 yards in the loss to the Vikings.
Selection: Buffalo Bills -4.
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https://www.newsweek.com/bills-4-point-road-favorites-patriots-week-13-tnf-game-1763746 Bill’s 4-point street favorite with the Patriots in TNF Game of the Week 13