Democrats poised to keep Senate if polls are right this time

If current polling is on track to predict 2022 midterm election results, Democrats will successfully retain control of the Senate, despite historical patterns that show the minority party has the advantage in the midterm elections.

With a month to go until Election Day, Democrats are poised to win in five of seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Recent polls suggest Republicans are still on track to flip Nevada and Wisconsin.

Currently, the Senate is split 50-50, but Democrats have the advantage with Vice President Kamala Harris’ landmark vote. To retain control of the Senate, Democrats must hold 14 Senate seats. As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight shows Democrats a 67-to-100 chance of retaining the Senate.

The GOP had been anticipating a massive red wave this November, and a shaky economy lashed by soaring prices and recession fears had left Republicans in control of Congress. But the Supreme Court Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization Decision ending abortion rights Roe v. calfboosted enthusiasm among Democratic voters, while a string of political victories for the White House saw Biden earn more points for the majority party.

However, predicting elections is becoming increasingly difficult. A news week An analysis of the 2020 polls and 2020 election results found that most polls in October predicted much bigger victories for President Joe Biden than the victories he actually saw over former President Donald Trump.

Arizona

Arizona polls were the most accurate among the top seven swing states. A Marist poll predicted it would be an even split between Biden and Trump, each supported by 48 percent of voters.

Eventually, after several recounts, Arizona went past Biden by an extremely slim margin. By about 10,000 votes — a 0.3 percent margin — Biden beat Trump as the first Democratic presidential nominee to run Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996.

A YouGov/CBS poll conducted between September 30 and October 4 found incumbent Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat, three points clear of Republican nominee Blake Masters.

Georgia

According to a Monmouth University poll, Biden should win the Peach State by three percentage points in October 2020. But the election results showed a much smaller victory of less than a percentage point.

Biden’s win in Georgia was even smaller than Arizona’s. The Democrat won by a margin of 0.23 percent.

However, recent polls show that Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has a double-digit lead over GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker, suggesting that even if the numbers are slightly skewed to the same extent as in 2020, Democrats still hold the Senate seat would. A SurveyUSA poll conducted between September 30 and October 4 puts Warnock ahead by 12 points.

Nevada

A Siena College poll showed Biden had a six-point lead over Trump, but Biden’s win in Nevada was closer to a 2.39 percent margin.

However, since Nevada is one of the two swing states Republicans are expected to take this November, a bias showing a larger win for Democrats would not be a problem for the GOP in the Silver State.

A Trafalgar Group poll conducted between September 17 and 20 shows that Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro is four percentage points behind Republican candidate Adam Laxalt.

New Hampshire

Polls throughout the 2020 election cycle showed Biden’s clear lead, and he had been heavily favored to take New Hampshire. His final win, however, was smaller than the predicted double-digit win a University of New Hampshire poll had suggested for Biden.

Although the poll showed the Democrats 12 points ahead of Trump, Biden’s victory margin ended up being 7.35 percent. That could spell trouble for New Hampshire Democrats this year because their advantage in the Senate race is less than Biden’s in 2020.

Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan is three points clear of Republican Don Bolduc, according to a Trafalgar Group poll conducted between September 26-39.

Ohio

Ohio was the swing state with the largest gap between polls and actual election results in 2020. A Siena College poll had predicted Biden would overtake Ohio by a percentage point, but the state overwhelmingly chose Trump, who had Ohio with more than eight points won 2020.

This could be bad news for Democratic Congressman Tim Ryan, who is up against Trump-backed JD Vance. While Ryan’s lead in the polls is slightly larger than Biden’s, Trump’s massive win with Vance could be a repeat.

A Siena College conducted between September 18-22 shows Ryan with a three-point lead over Vance.

Pennsylvania

A poll conducted by Quinnipiac University found Biden was seven points ahead of Trump in 2020. While the Democrat continued to lead the state, he won by just over 1 percent of the vote, securing 50.01 percent of support for Trump’s 48.84 percent.

Polls show a close race in the Pennsylvania Senate, where Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz face off to take the state’s open seat. An Emerson College poll conducted between September 23 and 26 shows that Fetterman is two points ahead of Oz.

Wisconsin

Biden had been forecast to take Wisconsin by a five percentage point margin in 2020, but his win in the state ended up being just 0.63 percentage points.

Republicans are currently expected to win the Senate race in Wisconsin, despite Democrat Mandela Barnes closing the gap on Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in the polls. A poll conducted by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research September 22-26 found Johnson had a four-point lead, but the most recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling between September 26-27, called the race balanced.