Golden Globes and SAG Awards: Who Will Win the Oscar Race?

Academy voters never took the Golden Globes seriously. It was always a celebratory night of partying, with a Jack Nicholson genius guy front and back (see: Brad Pitt) and revelers roaming the halls of the Beverly Hilton in search of the next hot party. (See…well, the show fell decidedly short in that regard).

This year was less about the specifics – awkward host Jerrod Carmichael; No-show winners Cate Blanchett (“TAR”) and Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”) – as questions about the future of the entire company. Dick Clark Prods.’ Todd Boehly is now turning the 96-member HFPA into a for-profit corporation that pays employees $75,000 a year to vote for the Globes while adding a growing list of (unpaid) international voters, some of whom are People of Color are.

The people watching the show don’t care. The moments when the winners interacted with the tables in the room – like inaugural winner and Oscar front-runner Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) paying poignant tribute to early mentor Steven Spielberg – were fun to watch . A Globes winner gets some forward momentum, and a great speech can go viral on social media, propelling Meryl Streep into the competition, for example (2017’s “Florence Foster Jenkins”). Academy voters watch the videos, if not the show.

Steven Spielberg at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards

Rich Polk / NBC

family man Steven Spielberg had a great night winning best director and best drama for “The Fabelmans” (Universal), brushing up the credibility of Toronto’s Crowd-Favorite winner after its poor box-office success.

And “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight) not only won best comedy actor (really? a comedy?) for Colin Farrell (whose sweet speech borrowed from his real-life relationship with costar Brendan Gleeson), but also the script and the Best Comedy for Martin McDonagh. Reminding viewers of her struggles as an Asian actress, Best Comedy Actress winner Michelle Yeoh didn’t go up against her would-be Oscar rival Blanchett, who won drama, just as a sluggish Austin Butler won in a drama category without Farrell .

Many in the larger Hollywood awards complex see the Golden Globes as essential to the Oscars machine and grease the skids on the road to the big night. If anything, this show proved the Globes are well past their prime and attempting to conjure up faded memories of their glory days, a shaky endeavor with no solid foundation. January 15th brings the Critics Choice Awards (I’m a member) on the CW, which still have a long way to go before they can match the broadcast impact or brand awareness of the Golden Globes, but their diverse voting panel consists of more than 500 professionals. Several CCA members (including Deadline’s Pete Hammond) were refused invitations to cover the Globe event, although non-members were welcome. A Golden Globe representative has not called back as of press time.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards are far more prescient than the Globes. The SAG’s 4,200-member film and TV nominating committee is more mainstream than the Academy Actors’ 1,302 (the largest Oscar voting block), but they do overlap. The big winner in the SAG nominations was Netflix, which managed to cast the charming “Hustle” star Adam Sandler and his equally dedicated Globe nominees Ana De Armas (“Blonde”) and Eddie Redmayne (“The Good Nurse”) in to get the SAG cast.

That doesn’t mean they’ll be repeating themselves in the Oscar nominations on the morning of January 24th. But the Oscar voting starts on Thursday January 12th and ends on Monday January 17th. Other voters will test the SAG nominees before making their final decisions.

After two Globe wins and five SAG nominations, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is building a massive cloud of steam. Not only did the SAG committee place him in the ensemble cast — often an Oscar pioneer — but Globe-winning actress Yeoh landed in the female lead with two of her co-stars in supporting roles: both Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu. (There were two Asian-American actresses in the Supporting Actress category because Hong Chau came for The Whale.) Also joining SAG was the anticipated Quan, who would continue his winning streak through to the Oscars.

Golden Globe winner and SAG nominee Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) should continue on her way to an Oscar slot. This is both a legacy award and a recognition of her intense service as a royal leader mourning the loss of her son. At the Globes, Bassett recalled (one of many checking her iPhone) that she was last on this stage as a winner in 1994 for “What’s Love Got to Do With It?”. It’s an irresistible Oscar tale.

Also with five SAG nominations was “Banshees of Inisherin,” which garnered an ensemble nod, as well as spots for Leading Male Farrell, Supporting Males Gleeson and Keoghan, and Supporting Female Kerry Condon, who credited McDonagh Tuesday night for directing her husband to the film fellow players had stolen.

“The Fabelmans” managed an ensemble nod, which is great, but only Paul Dano received an acting mention: Michelle Williams and Judd Hirsch were snubbed.

Brad Pitt at the Babylon premiere

WireImage/Getty

While composer Justin Hurwitz took home the only Golden Globe win for the Hollywood saga Babylon (not to mention director Damien Chazelle), the film surprisingly ended in the SAG ensemble, a sign of the actors’ strength. But Globe nominees Margot Robbie and Brad Pitt failed to score SAG slots – a sign of weakness. Again, while Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking” landed a much-needed seat at the SAG ensemble table, none of its actors (who were in competition) garnered a nomination.

Dropped from Ensemble but named Best Stunt Ensemble was The Woman King, while popular Viola Davis was included in Leading Female Drama alongside rising star Danielle Deadwyler of Till. Both should end up in the Oscar race for their emotional performances. Included in the stunt ensemble but excluded from other SAG mentions were Oscar contenders “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which are sure to do well in the Oscar categories. But Tom Cruise can say goodbye to his further Oscar nomination.

One thing to look forward to on Oscars night is that while “RRR” didn’t win Best Foreign Film at the Globes, it did win Best Song, assuming the song is shortlisted Oscar nominee, its two Indian superstars, NT Rama Rao Jr. and Ram Charan, told me they are more than willing to perform in tuxedos.

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