Herschel Walker could defeat Raphael Warnock in this scenario

According to popular belief in Georgia, the state’s incumbent Senator, Raphael Warnock, is almost certain to emerge victorious in Tuesday’s runoff against Republican opponent Herschel Walker.

A former soccer star, Walker has endured controversy after controversy. He has faced allegations of infidelity and paying for women to have abortions (despite claims to be anti-abortions), and he has faced documented allegations of domestic violence from former partners.

He has been caught playing up and loose with the truth on numerous occasions — falsely claiming he was the top person in his high school class and also claiming to be a member of law enforcement — and has been met with questions about his mental health and his Acumen confronted to serve. both for his admitted past habits of engaging in dangerous activities such as Russian roulette and his dissociative personality disorder, which he is said to have overcome, but some experts have questioned them.

But after a brutal campaign season — and numerous GOP losses in contested states — could Walker still win in Georgia?

Herschel over Herschel
Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker speaks during a campaign event December 4, 2022 in Loganville, Georgia. Herschel Walker continued to campaign across Georgia in hopes of defeating incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in the upcoming December 6 runoff.
Alex Wong/Getty Images

After Warnock narrowly ousted Walker in a Republican-dominated election in November, recent polls show Walker is well behind Republicans in the state just weeks earlier: where Walker finished second was other GOP candidates — like incumbent Governor Brian Kemp – has done well in Georgia, winning each of his statewide races by an average of about seven points.

Democrats are also many times outnumbering Republicans, and with the Senate now cleanly in Democrat hands, the urgency for Republicans is gone too, with partisan supporters like Senators Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham now urging voters to get involved avert the majority of Democrats from issuing subpoenas, confirming judges, and more easily dismissing the House Republican investigation into President Joe Biden’s administration.

However, early voting patterns seem to indicate that Democrats are participating in larger numbers, while organizations like Black PAC have worked to increase black turnout in a state whose support has been critical to Democrats’ success.

“Herschel Walker lost that race in November,” Black PAC chief executive Adrianne Shropshire told MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart over the weekend. “Without this rule enforcing this runoff, this would have been over and he would have lost. And nothing major has changed in the campaign since then.”

However, Georgia is still one of the most competitive states in the nation. And Walker, for all his mistakes, still has a chance to win.

Though Walker trailed Kemp by a wide margin in some of the state’s Republican strongholds, Warnock defeated Walker in the general election by fewer than 40,000 votes. Meanwhile, Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver received more than 81,000 votes in that race, beating Libertarian nominee for governor That new york times’ Blake Hounsell gave a sign many GOP voters couldn’t take their party’s Senate nominee.

In a turnout game, Walker and the GOP must now instill a new sense of urgency in Republicans, who have opted to sit out the state’s last hard-fought runoff: All things being equal, Republicans need less than half Oliver’s supporters to vote for Walker Victory.

Some believe he might. Ralph Reed, former leader of the Georgia Republican Party, said The Washington Times over the weekend that the party’s internal polls suggest that up to 15 per cent of Kemp voters, who generally supported Warnock, could switch their support to Walker in the runoff, while two-thirds of Oliver’s supporters appear to be leaning towards Walker .

It all depends on who turns out. A 2021 analysis by Georgia Public Broadcasting found that the narrow winning margins of Warnock and fellow Democratic senator Jon Ossoff in their runoff elections this year were the result of increased black turnout in metro Atlanta and southwest Georgia, as well as a sizeable decline of voter turnout were white rural Republican areas in the northern part of the state.

A lack of enthusiasm will be a key obstacle for Republicans to overcome: A recent analysis by CQ/Roll Call recently shifted the Warnock/Walker election from a toss-up to a Democratic tilt, citing the lack of effect of President Joe Biden’s unpopularity on Warnock’s success in the November election.

“It’s going to be a turnout,” Kemp said in a recent pro-Walker ad. “Who is more motivated? Are they or us?”

https://www.newsweek.com/herschel-walker-could-defeat-raphael-warnock-1764723 Herschel Walker could defeat Raphael Warnock in this scenario

Rick Schindler

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