Liz Cheney’s odds of winning the GOP elementary school 4 days before the election

The chances of Rep. Liz Cheney becoming the Republican nominee for Wyoming’s only seat in the US House of Representatives in November are slim to non-existent, new polls show.

On Thursday, the University of Wyoming’s Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center (WYSAC) released a new poll of Republican voters likely to vote in the state’s Aug. 16 primary that showed just 28 percent of them opposed incumbent Cheney going to support heavy favorite Harriet Hageman in less than a week.

Cheney is running for re-election, unlike her only Republican counterpart on the Jan. 6 committee, Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, who announced in October 2021 that he would not seek re-election.

About 57 percent of the 562 Wyoming residents polled between July 25 and August 6 preferred Hageman to Cheney. It’s a deep tumble for Cheney, who has represented Wyoming in Congress since 2017, including as the third-highest ranking House Republican since he chaired the House Republican Conference between 2019 and 2021.

According to the poll, Cheney’s numbers could be even worse.

“Given the unique attention this race is receiving and the attendant increase in voter registration and potential party switching, we decided to conduct this survey on a random sample of all Wyoming residents via cell phones and landline phones and work to identify likely voters in the GOP elementary school,” said Brian Harnisch, director of WYSAC. “If we just look at residents who say they’re Republicans and likely voters in the primary, we actually see that Hageman leads by about 50 points.”

Liz Cheney GOP primary chance
Republican Liz Cheney of Wyoming has to climb a giant hill to defeat GOP main antagonist Harriet Hageman on August 16th. Above, Cheney is pictured chairing a House Select Committee hearing investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol at the Cannon House office building July 21 in Washington, DC
Win McNamee/Getty Images

While some statewide Democrats — about 98 percent of whom support Cheney in her re-election efforts — have suggested switching and voting Republicans during the primary, University of Wyoming political science professor Jim King said the numbers on the Republican side are too big for a candidate like Cheney to be overcome next week.

“The Republican nomination race appears to be a referendum on Cheney, as is usually the case when an incumbent is seeking re-election … There has been much media talk about Democrats crossing the Republican primary and voting; it’s not that big of a group,” King said.

Hageman, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, describes herself as a “deep Wyomingite” who has consistently fought and defeated government bureaucracy. She advocated protection of the national forests, prevented the Environmental Protection Agency from controlling irrigation infrastructure, and prevented the US Department of Agriculture from registering ranches with the federal government.

Cheney has been swinging for the past few weeks.

In addition to establishing a direct correlation between Trump and the Capitol riot during repeated Jan. 6 hearings related to Trump, she has attacked outspoken Republican colleagues Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert.

She also shared a video of her father, Dick Cheney, recently saying there is no “greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump.”

news week has reached out to the Cheney and Hageman campaigns for comment. Liz Cheney’s odds of winning the GOP elementary school 4 days before the election

Rick Schindler

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