This year’s crop of original screenplays includes more international filmmakers and some very personal projects from previous Oscar winners.
We’ll be updating these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of our 2023 Oscar picks. Final voting will take place March 2-7, 2023. And finally, the 95th Oscars show on Sunday, March 12 will air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT.
The state of the race
While there’s still a lot to look forward to, this year has already unveiled several contenders for Best Original Screenplay. Given that this particular Oscar category often celebrates narrative ingenuity, a film like Everything Everywhere All at Once that tackled multiversal storytelling better than projects budgeted 10x is poised to have the writers and directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert make very familiar faces until the 95th Academy Awards in March.
But they are already guaranteed a lot of company. As the Academy begins to recognize more foreign language projects in categories outside of Best International Feature Film, Cannes has become even more of a proving ground for Oscar nominees, including Best Original Screenplay nominees, as that was one of the categories won by Bong Joon Ho after “Parasite” premiered at the festival.
This year, writers such as Ruben Östlund and Park Chan-wook, previously overlooked by the Academy despite making key films such as ‘Force Majeure’ and ‘Oldboy’ respectively, launched their award-winning new films out of the spring festival in the south of France “Triangle of Sadness” and “Decision to Leave”. While the former satisfies audiences’ recent desire for class satire, the latter, written with Seo-kyeong Jeong, satisfies an appetite for classic Hollywood storytelling, especially film noir.
And yet there is so much more to see at the Autumn Festivals and beyond, including a trio of films about cinephiles: Cannes audiences have already seen James Gray’s deeply personal Armageddon Time, which is now followed by Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans . and Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light at the Toronto International Film Festival – two more films that immerse viewers in the environment that transformed screenwriters into filmmakers. A fourth film about filmmaking, Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Fistful of Truths) by Oscar regular Alejandro González Iñárritu (who co-wrote with Nicolás Giacobone) revolves around a documentary filmmaker.
“TÁR” director Todd Field and “Babylon” director Damien Chazelle have already had several screenplay nominations, so it’s a safe bet that they’ll be attending this awards talk. Meanwhile, “Amsterdam” director David O. Russell has received two screenplay nominations in the past, but compared to Field and Chazelle, many of his screenplays have not been recognized by the Academy. Meanwhile, several writers better known for their work in other media have original screenplays that could make it into this category if they grow strong enough: Atlanta writer Stefani Robinson (“Chevalier”), novelist Ottessa Moshfegh ( “Causeway”) , and comedian Billy Eichner (“Bros”).
Oscar contenders are listed in alphabetical order. Only movies I’ve seen are considered front runners.
Park Chan-wook and Seo-kyeong Jeong (“Decision to Leave”)
Julia Cho, Domee Shi and Sarah Streicher (“Turning Red”)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere at Once”)
Sam Bromell, Baz Luhrmann and Craig Pearce (“Elvis”)
Jordan Peele (“No”)
Damien Chazelle (“Babylon”)
Todd Field (“TAR”)
Nicolás Giacobone and Alejandro González Iñárritu (“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Fistful of Truths)”)
Luke Goebel, Ottessa Moshfegh and Elizabeth Sanders (“Causeway”)
James Gray (“Armageddon Time”)
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (“The Fablemans”)
Sam Mendes (“Empire of Light”)
Ruben Ostlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)
Stefani Robinson (“Chevalier”)
David O. Russell (“Amsterdam”)
Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu and Michael Reilly (“Till”)
Maria Bello and Dana Stevens (“The Woman King”)
Elegance Bratton (“The Inspection”)
Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller (“Bros”)
Tyler Perry (“A Jazzman’s Blues”)
Cooper Raiff (“Cha Cha Real Smooth”)
Seth Reiss and Will Tracy (“The Menu”)
Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke and Shane Van Dyke (“Don’t Worry Honey”)
Paul Schrader (“Master Gardener”)
Charlotte Wells (“After Sun”)
https://www.indiewire.com/feature/2023-oscars-best-original-screenplay-predictions-1234756232/ Oscars 2023: Best Original Screenplay Predictions