Oscars 2023: Final nomination predictions in 23 categories

One of the great things about an Oscar film is that it’s fresh and original. “Avatar” used to be that movie: It blew the minds of the Oscar voters in the 2010 Oscar race, winning three out of nine nominations and nearly making Best Picture. Titanic winner James Cameron was smitten with his ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow winning for Hurt Locker.

This year, four PGA-nominated sequels are vying for a top 10 Best Picture slot, including Avatar: The Way of Water, but it’s unlikely that any will win the top prize. The new thing in 2023 is Daniels’ Everything Everywhere All at Once by loner A24, who also backs The Whale. Both won at the often Oscar-predicting Critics Choice Awards and many expect those wins (picture, direction, supporting actor, original screenplay and editing for “Everything”) and Best Actor for “The Whale” star Brendan Fraser to be repeated at the Oscars.

Not so fast. In recent years you could feel the surge of support for “Parasite” and “CODA” after their SAG ensemble won. And you can feel it too on the awards track for “Everything,” which the SAG Ensemble is likely to win. But that doesn’t change the nature of this chaotic hit comedy ($100 million worldwide), which resonates better with younger audiences than the older and more conservative members of the academy who might not be partial to brain-crushing multiverses and limp hot-dog fingers speak to . The actors (five SAG nominations), producers (PGA Top 10), directors (DGA Top 5), writers and the international voters (10 BAFTA nominations) support him as much as the craft. Passion, originality and the touching story of the immigrant family carried by Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan and Stephanie Hsu, “Everything” could eventually lead to a Best Picture trophy.

On the morning of the Oscar nominations, I predict that “Everything” will receive nine nominations, the most of any contender this year. Martin McDonagh’s “Banshees of Inisherin” was to follow at eight, and while it didn’t score any wins at the CCAs, it’s likely to get a big boost from the BAFTAs (10 nominations); It is also supported by actors (SAG Ensemble), directors (DGA), producers (PGA), writers and the international block.

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

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It’s about finding out where the support lies. Apparently, the international faction isn’t reacting to Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, which only earned Tony Kushner a BAFTA writer nomination. “The Fabelmans” took home Best Drama and Best Director at the Golden Globes, but won only Best Young Actor (Gabriel LaBelle) at the CCAs. Spielberg’s coming-of-age origin myth landed on the PGA listings and SAG Ensemble slots, but missed out on a Best Actress nomination for Michelle Williams. SAG and the Oscars don’t always go together. In all likelihood, she’ll show up alongside SAG nominee Paul Dano on the morning of the Oscar nomination.

Nominations: seven. Why not any more? The little family drama might not impress the craft as much as your average Spielberg event film.

The highest-grossing original film of the year, Baz Luhrmann’s musical biopic Elvis ($282 million worldwide) is able to garner eight nominations, with support from almost everyone except writers and directors. (Could he get a surprise director?) Todd Field is sure to land in the best director category for the world music drama TAR, which is full of unexpected surprises and could earn Globe and CCA winner Cate Blanchett her third Oscar. Nominations: five.

Among the sequels, “Top Gun: Maverick” should score seven times with the support of the craft. While Joseph Kosinski was loved by the DGA, James Cameron was able to replace him on the morning of the Oscar nomination for his stunning work on Avatar: The Way of Water. This VFX favorite should also nod seven times. It’s possible that the massive box office success of both films currently vying for the 2022 national gross crown will weigh against them in the best picture race. They somehow don’t scream “art,” though both took a lot of artistry to get that good.

So are two PGA-nominated sequels that could win Best Picture: Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Nominations: five and one (adapted screenplay) respectively.

A new contender for the top 10 best picture: Edward Berger’s German Oscar entry, the WWII remake All Quiet on the Western Front, which garnered 14 BAFTA nominations and five Oscar shortlists. That means more voters will see the film, which tops the international feature race but is also a factor in several craft categories. Nominations: five.

Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” is a dilemma because the craft obviously respects it, but so does SAG, which gave it a valuable place in the ensemble, presumably before it bombed at the box office. But the PGA picked it up too. Nominations: four, including Best Picture.

Which brings us to the question of the hour: Sarah Polley’s feminist drama “Women Talking” (SAG Ensemble, CCAs) vs. Darren Aronofsky’s heartthrob “The Whale” (PGA, CCAs, BAFTAs). Will ‘The Whale’ Get a Spot in an Adapted Screenplay? (The Predictive Scripter Awards went to “Women Talking,” while the BAFTA chose “The Whale.”) If so, that could tip the scales for a Best Picture slot. Both films are in the running for Best Score, while The Whale tops the Make-up & Hairstyling category. Finally, “Women Talking,” which garnered critical support but was late to theaters, could be seen (particularly by men) as widely as box office artist “The Whale” ($10.7 million domestically). Nominations: three each.

“The Fable Men”

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Below are my final nomination predictions, ranked by the likelihood I’ll win.

best picture

“The Fable Men”
“Everything everywhere at once”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“TAR”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Elvis”
“Babylon”
“Nothing new in the West”
“Women in Conversation”

Best Director

Steven Spielberg (“The Fablemans”)
Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (“Everything Everywhere at Once”)
Todd Field (“TAR”)
James Cameron (“Avatar: The Way of Water”)

Best Actress

Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere At Once”)
Cate Blanchett (“TAR”)
Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Viola Davis (“The Lady King”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”)

Best actor

Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Austin Butler (“Elvis”)
Bill Nighty (“Life”)
Paul Mescal (After Sun)

The best supporting actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere at Once”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)
Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere at Once”)

Best supporting actor

Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere at Once”)
Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Paul Dano (“The Fablemans”)
Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Judd Hirsch (“The Fablemans”)

Customized script

Sarah Polley (“Women Talk”)
Kazuo Ishiguro (“Life”)
Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie and Eric Warren (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
Rian Johnson (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)
Edward Berger & Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Original script

“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything everywhere at once”
“The Fable Men”
“TAR”
“Triangle of Sadness”

cinematography

“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Batman”
“Elvis”
“Kingdom of Light”

costumes

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“Babylon”
“The Woman King”
“Everything everywhere at once”

editing

“Top Gun: Maverick”
“TAR”
“Elvis”
“Everything everywhere at once”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”

Make-up & hair styling

“The whale”
“The Batman”
“Elvis”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Nothing new in the West”

product design

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Babylon”
“Elvis”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Nothing new in the West”

original score

“The Fable Men”
“Babylon”
“Pinocchio”
“Women in Conversation”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”

Original song

“RRR” (“Naatu Naatu”)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Top Gun: Maverick” (“Hold My Hand”)
“Pinocchio” (“Bye Papa”)
“A Man Called Otto” (“Until You’re Home”)

sound
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Elvis”
“The Batman”
“Nothing new in the West”

VFX

“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Jurassic World: Dominion”

Animated feature
“Pinocchio”
“To redden”
“Marcel the Shell with shoes on”
“My Father’s Dragon”
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”

documentary

“Navalny”
“Fire of Love”
“Everything That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“A House of Splinters”

International feature
“Nothing new in the West”
“Argentina, 1985”
“decision to go”
“Close”
“EO”

Animated short film

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
“My Year of Cocks”
“The Flying Sailor”
“Ice Cream Vendor”
“Black Slide”

Documentary short film

“The Flag Makers”
“38 in the Garden”
“As Far They Can Walk”
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
“Abstract”

Live action short film

“The pupil”
“Warsha”
“Ivalu”
“Night Ride”
“Tula”

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