Russia’s bureaucratic incompetence threatens to undermine Putin’s annexation – ISW

According to the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian authorities “will have difficulty establishing governance structures over four annexed Ukrainian provinces due to “bureaucratic incompetence”.

Vladimir Putin on Friday signed “accession treaties” bringing together Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson with the Russian Federation. This was followed by referendums in the four regions, which were dismissed as “rigged” and “bogus” by the western powers.

The move sparked an angry reaction from the world’s leading democracies, with the G7 group of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US issuing a joint statement saying they would support the annexation ” never acknowledge” which they branded. a new low in Russia’s flagrant disregard for international law.” Following the announcement, new sanctions were imposed on Russia by the US, EU and UK

In its latest assessment of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, released September 30, the ISW said Russia is likely to have trouble controlling the annexed territory.

Putin speaks at a rally on the annexation of Red Square
People take part in a rally and concert marking the annexation of four Russian-held regions of Ukraine – Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia – on September 30, 2022 in central Moscow’s Red Square. According to the War Research Institute, Russia will fight for control of the newly annexed regions.

The think tank said: “Putin likely rushed the annexation of these areas before even making basic administrative decisions about borders and governance. Therefore, Russian officials have not established clear guidelines or conditions for proper administration.

“Organizing government for these four forcibly annexed oblasts would be a bureaucratic challenge for any state after Russian forces systematically killed, arrested or expelled Ukrainian officials who previously ran regional administrations.

“But the bureaucratic incompetence shown by the Kremlin in attempting to partially mobilize Russian men suggests that Russian bureaucrats will similarly struggle to establish governmental structures over a resistant and unwilling population in the war zone, Russian-occupied Ukraine area is.”

On Saturday, Ukrainian forces recaptured the town of Lyman in Donetsk, with Russia admitting its troops had withdrawn “because of the threat of encirclement.”

In response, Ramzan Kadyrov, the pro-Putin strongman who heads Russia’s Chechnya region, suggested using “low-yield nuclear weapons.”

He wrote on the social media platform Telegram: “In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, up to and including the imposition of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons.”

Following Friday’s annexation ceremony at Moscow’s Grand Kremlin Palace, Putin insisted Russia would protect his newly claimed country “with all the forces and means at our disposal.”

Speak with news week dr Alan Mendoza, executive director of the London-based think tank Henry Jackson Society, said: “Putin is trying to end the war with a tangible territorial gain as he would ultimately struggle to survive further battlefield embarrassment politically.”

In addition to Ukraine’s regular armed forces, Russia is subject to partisan attacks in areas of Ukraine under its control, where Russian troops and local collaborators are the target of bombings and shootings.

Following the mobilization order, videos of apparently intoxicated Russian conscripts were widely circulated on social media. Russia’s bureaucratic incompetence threatens to undermine Putin’s annexation – ISW

Rick Schindler

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