San Diego State vs UConn Odds and Tips

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Tonight at NRG Stadium in Houston, the UConn Huskies (30-8, 26-11-1 ATS) and the San Diego State Aztecs (32-6, 19-16-2 ATS) will compete for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Championship. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:20 p.m. ET

UConn advanced to the title game as No. 4 in the West region while SDSU was No. 5 in the South.

UConn vs. San Diego State Odds

The odds for Monday’s national championship game are heavily weighted towards the Huskies. After a brief opening as a chalk at 5.5, UConn was immediately set at -7.5. What started with a -230 money line has shortened to -390 at DraftKings, giving UConn an implied win probability of 79.6 percent.

If that spread looks big for a title game, it is. Assuming the line closes at 7.5, that’s the widest spread for a national championship game since 1999, when Duke was a 9.5-point favorite over UConn.

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A lot has also changed in the over/under since Saturday evening. The opening game total of 135.5 was bet down to 132.5.

Oddly enough, while the spread is 7.5 across the board, there are significant differences in the moneyline from sportsbook to sportsbook. DraftKings is the shortest on UConn (-390/+320), while FanDuel has the most optimistic odds for SDSU, listing the moneyline at -345/+270 in favor of UConn.

Can UConn be slowed down?

Don’t let the numbers next to the names fool you. UConn is no ordinary #4 seed. The Huskies competed in the 2023 NCAA tournament and finished in the top five at KenPom, Torvik and Haslametrics. After their dominant run to the title game, they became the best team in the country on all three analysis sites.

UConn is 5-0 against the spread in the NCAA tournament, and the Huskies’ supporters didn’t have to break a sweat. None of UConn’s top five March Madness opponents were able to maintain a single-digit lead. They cruised to No. 13 Iona (87-63) as a 9.5 point favorite, No. 5 Saint Mary’s (70-55) as a 3.5 point favorite, No. 8 Arkansas (88-65) as a 3.5-point favorite, No. 3 Gonzaga (82-54) as a 2.5-point favorite and No. 5 Miami (72-59) as a 7.5-point favorite.

Gonzaga’s absolute teardown seems to have served as a wake-up call for oddsmakers.

UConn now has the second best coverage ratio in Division I this season (70.3).

As they have all season, forward Adama Sanogo (17.2 PPG) and guard Jordan Hawkins (16.2 PPG) led offense in every win. One of the two scored at least 20 points in every NCAA tournament game. Sanogo is averaging just over 20 points per game in the tournament (20.2, up 9.8 RPG), while Hawkins sits at 16.4.

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San Diego State’s date with Destiny?

SDSU’s run for the national championship bears little resemblance to UConn’s. The slow-moving defensive-first Aztecs won just one of their first five games by double digits and needed two one-point wins in the Elite Eight and Final Four to reach that point.

Her path through the South Regional included victories over No. 12 Charleston (63-57 as a 5.5 point favorite), No. 13 Furman (75-52 as a 4.5 point favorite), No. 1 Alabama ( 71-64 as a 6.5 point favorite). point underdog), No. 6 Creighton (57-56 as a 2.5-point underdog), and No. 9 Florida Atlantic (72-71 as a 2.5-point favorite).

Lamont Butler’s buzzer-beater in the Final Four immediately made its way into March Madness history.

The Aztecs’ offense ranks only 68th in overall efficiency at KenPom (compared to UConn’s 8th) and they don’t have a single player averaging more than 12.7 points per game (Matt Bradley).

Their first-half performance in the last two games has been a cause for concern. San Diego State was behind Creighton by five and FAU by seven at the break, but showed considerable physical and mental strength in both games to rally.

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San Diego State vs UConn Best Bet

I don’t have a strong game on the result here. The Huskies are shockingly dominant at their best, losing at home to St. John’s when they have an evening off. While I lean towards the stingy Aztecs covering what I consider to be a slow game, my best bet for the championship is a player prop.

After a horrendous performance against Creighton (two points in just 20 minutes), Matt Bradley responded with a 21-point performance in the Final Four against Florida Atlantic, and I expect the Aztec premier leader to emerge again. His overall score for the title game was set by FanDuel at just 12.5, which is marginally below his season average, and I’m taking the helm.

Without belittling SDSU’s excellent defense, UConn will find ways to score the ball and San Diego State will have to find ways to respond. Expect coach Brian Dutcher to put the ball in Bradley’s hands early and often. If San Diego State manages to hold the lead late and the game turns into a free-throw contest, the Aztecs will do their best to get Bradley to the line. He leads the team in free throw percentage and is at 80 percent for the season.

Best Bet: Matt Bradley over 12.5 points (-105) on FanDuel Sportsbook

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