Top geopolitical risks for 2023 include Russia, “weapons of mass destruction,” the report says

Iran and inflationary shocks are high on the list of geopolitical risks for 2023. But three other things pose more immediate challenges, according to a report published on Tuesday: “rogue Russia” under President Vladimir Putin, the consolidation of power by China’s Xi Jinping, and “Weapons of mass disruption” which include technologies such as artificial intelligence.

“The risks at the top of this list are aging dictators and tech brothers,” said Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and advisory firm that published the report. “These are the things that swirl around at night and affect us all when we wake up.”

Bremmer told CBS Mornings that Putin, who launched Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, is in “an incredible position.”

“If he can’t continue the war in Ukraine, he will take it somewhere,” Bremmer said. “That means the war will hit NATO.”

Bremmer said that could manifest itself in new cyber attacks. He said Russia’s economy was suffering “the kind of blow that Iran suffered,” adding that Russia didn’t have the military might to fight and win war in Ukraine.

He also said the risk posed by China’s increasing assertiveness is similar to that of Russia.

“The focus is on a guy with exceptional power,” he said. “It allows him to make big mistakes because he’s surrounded by ‘yes men’.”

Here are the Eurasia Group’s top 10 risks for 2023, in the words of the group:

• Villains Russia
• Maximum Xi
• weapons of mass destruction
• shockwaves of inflation
• Iran in a corner
• energy crunch
• Captured global development
• Divided States of America
• TikTok boom
• water stress

“It’s not the end of democracy (nor of NATO or the West),” the Eurasia Group said. “But we remain in the depths of a geopolitical recession, with risks this year representing the most dangerous we have encountered in the 25 years since Eurasia Group was founded.”