Updated Super Bowl odds for all four teams after the NFL divisional round

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The 2023 NFL conference championship games will be played with the Kansas City Chiefs (15-3, 8-1 home) defeating the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4, 7-3 away) in the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles (15- 3, 9-1 home) hosts the San Francisco 49ers (15-4, 5-3 away) in the NFC.

The overarching theme of conference championships is parity. None of the spreads are more than a field goal, and the updated Super Bowl futures are razor sharp.

2023 Super Bowl Odds

The Chiefs are still favored as they head into the divisional round, but at +230 they are only just ahead of the other three teams. The Bengals and 49ers are the second-best favorites at +250, while the Eagles bring up the rear at +260.

The implied winning probability for all four teams is between 27 and 31 percent.

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Bengals impressed with a win over Bills to set up the AFC Championship rematch

With all due respect to the Eagles, which we’ll get to in a moment, the Bengals put on the most impressive performance of the divisional round. Cincinnati went into Orchard Park as a 5.5-point underdog against the Bills but extended an early 14-0 lead and never looked back.

They passed Buffalo by nearly 100 yards in the game (412 to 325) and forced the contest’s only two turnovers. Their battered offensive line allowed just one sack, a hugely encouraging sign for Bengals fans moving forward. The Bengals O-Line was three starters short.

Cincinnati’s defense held Buffalo, who started the game 7-1 at home, at a season-low ten points. After the four-minute mark of the first quarter, Cincinnati’s lead had never dropped below seven in their 27-10 win.

Kansas City’s win over Jacksonville was impressive in itself. The Chiefs never went behind, never turned the ball over, and held the ball 35-01 (24-59 for the Jaguars). They would have covered as a 9.5-point favorite had it not been for a last-minute field goal from the Jags, making it a one-score game.

But the quality of the competition was not the same, nor was the hostility of the environment.

The Bengals vs. Chiefs odds for the AFC Championship Game opened at -2.5 in Kansas City, but at the time of publication that figure was KC -1.

Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is 2-0 in his short career against the Chiefs, including a win in last year’s AFC title game (27-24 OT).

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Eagles drive off Giants while 49ers fend off Cowboys

After Saturday’s Giants/Eagles game, one might have thought that the title of “Most Impressive Team” for the divisional round would go to the Eagles. Philadelphia defeated New York 28-0 in the first half and won 38-7. They dominated every facet of the game, with offense amassed 416 total yards, including a paltry 268 on the ground, and defense holding the Giants to just 227.

The Philly pass rush came five times to Giants QB Daniel Jones when “Danny Dimes” went just 15/27 for a paltry 109 yards.

The renewed rivalry between the 49ers and the Cowboys was a low-scoring back-and-forth until the fourth quarter. Neither team was leading by more than a field goal until Christian McCaffrey broke a 9-9 tie with a two-yard touchdown in the first game of the last frame.

Rookie QB Brock Purdy continued to play well enough. The Iowa State product was 19/29 for 214 yards on defense. Importantly, he only took two sacks against the league’s third-best pass rush and threw no interceptions.

The Eagles opened as a two-point favorite over the 49ers in next Sunday’s NFC title game.

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